November CPI 0.0% (SA) and -0.3% (NSA)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in November on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.  Before seasonal adjustment the figure for November was -0.3%.  You can read the BLS announcement here.

Flat and negative CPI inflation is a strong reason for the Fed to take a pass on their signaled rate increase on December 19th.  We’ll see what they do.  This CPI behavior late in the economic cycle is suggestive of a looming recession.  Stay tuned.

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